Texas hasn’t done this since 1988.
This year we can.

Average is a simple mean of the polls listed. LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. Full poll list from the UT Texas Politics Project tracker.

The Senate majority may run through Texas.

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. To take it back, Democrats need a net gain of four seats, and only a handful of pickups are realistic. Texas is one of them for the first time in a generation.

The Senate confirms every federal judge and Supreme Court justice, every cabinet secretary, and decides which bills ever get a vote. A Democratic majority is the difference between a check on this administration and a rubber stamp.

And a win in the second largest state in the country would end the idea that Texas is permanently out of reach. That changes where every future campaign competes.

The interview that didn’t air on TV.

In September, Jimmy Kimmel Live released its interview with Talarico on YouTube instead of broadcasting it on ABC, after pressure from the FCC. It quickly became one of the show’s most-watched videos of the year. Hear him make the case in his own words.

Watch on YouTube →

A former public school teacher from Round Rock.

Talarico grew up in Central Texas, taught sixth grade on San Antonio’s west side, and has represented the Austin suburbs in the Texas House since 2018. He won the Democratic nomination in March and has led in most public polls of the race since.

• 🍎Classroom first. Taught sixth-grade English at a San Antonio middle school through Teach For America before running for office.
• 💊Lower costs. Championed capping insulin costs at $25 a month for Texans.
• 🏫Public schools. Made fully funding Texas public schools, and opposing private school vouchers, a centerpiece of his time in the Legislature.
• 🤝Reaching past the base. Wins 65% of moderates in the Fox News poll, and about 1 in 5 voters who backed John Cornyn in the GOP primary now support him.

Ken Paxton’s record is already on the books.

Paxton has been Texas Attorney General since 2015. He beat Senator John Cornyn in the Republican runoff in May. This is public record:

• ⚖️Impeached by his own party. In 2023 the Republican-led Texas House voted 121 to 23 to impeach him on charges including bribery and abuse of office. The state Senate acquitted him.
• 📈Nearly a decade under indictment. He was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015. The case ended in 2024 with an agreement that required him to pay roughly $300,000 in restitution.
• 🗳️Tried to overturn 2020. He filed the lawsuit asking the Supreme Court to throw out the results in four states. The Court rejected it.

Texas voters already see it. In the Fox News poll, 58% view Paxton unfavorably, compared with 44% for Talarico.

It isn’t the polls. It’s the belief that Texas can’t flip.

Decades of losing teach people to expect it. That’s the trap. Races like this are lost when supporters decide it’s over before it starts, and stay home.

The other side is counting on that. National Republican groups are spending heavily in Texas because they know this seat is in play. The question is whether the rest of us act like it’s in play too.

Make your plan now.

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The single most effective thing you can do from anywhere is make sure the Texans you know have a plan. A personal text works better than any ad.